Five new reflections on Europe's migrant crisis

Syrians are a small minority of those seeking refuge in Germany

While the tragedy of those fleeing Syria's terrible civil war has caught the popular imagination, such people formed just 20.1% of those seeking asylum in Germany from January to August 2015.

If you add together the Balkan arrivals (from Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, and Macedonia) they amount to twice that, 40.2%. The figures for those granted refuge are quite different because many of the applications from Balkan countries are rejected.

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that tens of thousands of people from relatively peaceful countries have joined the trek to Germany, which is seen as one of the most desirable places in Europe to live.

To put it more bluntly: they are taking advantage of and increasing this crisis. Statistics (attached report in German) compiled by the German authorities show that while the number of Syrians went up by 177% during the first nine months of 2015 (compared with the same period last year), the rise from Albania was 631%.

There were reports on Wednesday of people making their way from Serbia to both Croatia and Romania in an attempt to avoid Hungary. Both of these EU members have so far avoided having large numbers of migrants.

Bavarian police told me last week about how dynamic in their use of social media and phone the new arrivals were, in terms of seeking the best routes to use. But their ability to bypass Hungary will become limited as other EU countries beef up controls.

It's known that proposals discussed on Monday by European interior ministers envisage the construction of more fences, strengthening of the EU border agency Frontex and creation of large assessment camps for those arriving in Italy and Greece, with deportation for those who fail to meet asylum criteria.

The most desperate may avoid Europe

One of the most shocking aspects of the Syrian story is the degree to which donor countries have reduced aid to the refugee camps or failed to keep pace with the growing numbers in them.

Food aid for refugee camps in Jordan has therefore been halved recently and many who live in rented accommodation away from camps now no longer get it at all.

EU principles at stake


This week's reimposition of border controls has led some to predict the imminent demise of the Schengen system of unrestricted travel. Last week it was the survival of another principle, enshrined in the Dublin Regulations, which stipulates refugees must seek asylum in the first EU country they reach, that seemed to be in doubt.