[CanadianJeff]

You know I've come across one big truth during my life.

It's almost always BS when a nice round even figure is evolved when someone quotes stats. If you hear a nice round even but supposed to be scary number odds are it's totally made up.

[Zipperfish]

Proculation Proculation:

That's the theory I believe in. The problem is colloidal particles, not CO2 or global warming. Take two snow benches: one immaculate white and another with a lot of dust/soot/etc on it. Which one will melt faster ? White color makes the IR waves rebound while the dark colors absorb them. That's quite basic...

And who told you that? One of those "scientists" I suppose.

[raydan]

They can't even predict the weather correctly 2-3 days ahead.

Now why is that?
- not enough/incorrect data
- wrong computer models/misunderstanding of parts of the process
- not enough computer power

If they can't get this right, I don't think they can get climate change/global warming right either.

[DerbyX]

http://planetgore.nationalreview.com/po ... ZmZWViNjc=

$1:

COPENHAGEN - Al Gore's citation of a scientist predicting an ice-free Arctic within a decade appears to have been accurate. It appears the scientist Gore cited, Dr. Wieslav Maslowski, did in fact make this prediction and it was published on December 2, 2009 by the Danish Climate Centre, lending support to Gore's claim that the “figures are fresh.”

On December 14, former Vice President Al Gore told the UN climate summit that the Arctic could be ice free within a decade. “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years,” Gore said.

But Dr. Maslowski essentially threw Gore under the bus, according to a December 15, 2009 article in the UK Times:

“However, the climatologist whose work Mr. Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast. 'It's unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr. Maslowski said. 'I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.' Mr. Gore's office later admitted that the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr. Maslowski as a 'ballpark figure' several years ago in a conversation with Mr. Gore.” The UK Times characterized it as Gore's "embarrassing error."

But Climate Depot has obtained a handout on the Arctic that is being distributed by the Danish government that cites Dr. Maslowski's Arctic modeling and it appears to vindicate Gore's citation of Dr. Maslowski. The December 2, 2009 handout, published by the Danish Climate Centre is entitled “FreshNor The freshwater budget of the Nordic Seas.”

The Danish Climate Centre's brochure cites Maslowski's models and claims and reaches the same conclusion as Gore: “Projecting the trend into the future indicates that autumn could become near ice free between 2011 and 2016 (Maslowski, 2009).” This appears to vindicate Gore's assertions during his UN speech that Maslowski had made such a prediction. Maslowski is a research professor with the Department of Oceanography at the Navy Post Graduate School in Monterey, CA. [Climate Depot Editor's Note: The "prediction" of an ice-free Arctic is not "evidence" of anything other than an apparent attempt to gain media attention by Maslowski and Gore. When real world data fails to scare, make an alarming prediction. See: Arctic sea Ice GROWS by 'area one and a half times the size of Texas' – Sept. 20, 2009 & NYT: 'Spread of Thicker Arctic Ice Seen Last Summer' — 'A substantial expansion of the extent of 'second year ice' - Oct. 6, 2009]

It appears that far from just a “'ballpark figure' several years ago in a conversation with Mr. Gore,” that Maslowski has indeed made this ice-free Arctic prediction much more formally and in model studies. Gore's version of events appears to be accurate, while Maslowski appears to be the one who has the explaining to do.

[N_Fiddledog]

CanadianJeff CanadianJeff:

You know I've come across one big truth during my life.

It's almost always BS when a nice round even figure is evolved when someone quotes stats. If you hear a nice round even but supposed to be scary number odds are it's totally made up.

There's a better one than that in the general global warming argument.

Graphs showing warming are produced in a scale which makes warming look pretty dramatic, but really we're only talking about tenths of a degree for most stuff. If you look at a graph for the 20th century for example on a 1 degree scale you wouldn't notice much warming. It's seven tenths of a degree warming for that century.

And if it's all about tenths of a degree you have to ask yourself do we even have the kind of confidence in our ability to measure global temperature to make that credible. I don't think so, for a lot of reasons. So if you're talking about something like 2/10 of a degree separating the warm period of the thirties and forties from today, how confident can we be about that?

I think the best temperature measurements we had during the 30s, and 40s were in America. In America much of that period was as warm, almost as warm, or warmer than the present. When we add a lot questionable measurements from the rest of the world it becomes about 2/10 of a degree warmer. How confident are we of that really? Could the slope of warming actually be say 3/10 of a degree instead of 7/10 for the 20th century. How much would all that matter, I wonder? Would there be a Copenhagen conference right now?

[PublicAnimalNo9]

Well, I'll take Fucknuts a lot more seriously when he sells his 20 room mansion with indoor swimming pool that uses more energy in one month than most families use in a year.
And I'll take the rest of the AGW elitists a lot more seriously too, when they get rid of their private jets and limos.

[Zipperfish]

raydan raydan:

They can't even predict the weather correctly 2-3 days ahead.

Now why is that?
- not enough/incorrect data
- wrong computer models/misunderstanding of parts of the process
- not enough computer power

If they can't get this right, I don't think they can get climate change/global warming right either.

I can. And I'm willing to put money on it. Fifty beans says that the average temperature in July in Canada will be hotter than teh average temperature in January in Canada.

Are you in?

[DerbyX]

PublicAnimalNo9 PublicAnimalNo9:

Well, I'll take Fucknuts a lot more seriously when he sells his 20 room mansion with indoor swimming pool that uses more energy in one month than most families use in a year.
And I'll take the rest of the AGW elitists a lot more seriously too, when they get rid of their private jets and limos.

I'll agree with that. Al Gore is a piss-poor example of what somebody concerned about carbon footprints. Ed Begley Jr is a much better example. He walks the walk.

May I suggest not taking your cue from either of them though and base it on the science and scientists that existed before the political hype?

[Zipperfish]

PublicAnimalNo9 PublicAnimalNo9:

Well, I'll take Fucknuts a lot more seriously when he sells his 20 room mansion with indoor swimming pool that uses more energy in one month than most families use in a year.
And I'll take the rest of the AGW elitists a lot more seriously too, when they get rid of their private jets and limos.

Sorry, I thought the right-wingers were against socialism. So what?--you want all the rich people to give up their belongings? Whatever comrade.

[gigs]

DerbyX DerbyX:

PublicAnimalNo9 PublicAnimalNo9:

Well, I'll take Fucknuts a lot more seriously when he sells his 20 room mansion with indoor swimming pool that uses more energy in one month than most families use in a year.
And I'll take the rest of the AGW elitists a lot more seriously too, when they get rid of their private jets and limos.

I'll agree with that. Al Gore is a piss-poor example of what somebody concerned about carbon footprints. Ed Begley Jr is a much better example. He walks the walk.

May I suggest not taking your cue from either of them though and base it on the science and scientists that existed before the political hype?

Ed Begley?



I wonder how Ed feels about Suzuki since he's a Geneticist not a climate scientist.
Ed is just another sheep.

[DerbyX]

Don't worry. Your buddy Glenn Beck Is thinking all about your financial security

[PublicAnimalNo9]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

PublicAnimalNo9 PublicAnimalNo9:

Well, I'll take Fucknuts a lot more seriously when he sells his 20 room mansion with indoor swimming pool that uses more energy in one month than most families use in a year.
And I'll take the rest of the AGW elitists a lot more seriously too, when they get rid of their private jets and limos.

Sorry, I thought the right-wingers were against socialism. So what?--you want all the rich people to give up their belongings? Whatever comrade.

Nope, just want them to put their money where their mouths are..FOR ONCE!
And apparently, they want US to give up what WE have.

[PublicAnimalNo9]

DerbyX DerbyX:

PublicAnimalNo9 PublicAnimalNo9:

Well, I'll take Fucknuts a lot more seriously when he sells his 20 room mansion with indoor swimming pool that uses more energy in one month than most families use in a year.
And I'll take the rest of the AGW elitists a lot more seriously too, when they get rid of their private jets and limos.

I'll agree with that. Al Gore is a piss-poor example of what somebody concerned about carbon footprints. Ed Begley Jr is a much better example. He walks the walk.

May I suggest not taking your cue from either of them though and base it on the science and scientists that existed before the political hype?

Dude, I didn't believe this shit from day one, before anyone even knew who the hell Gore was.
As has been mentioned, they can't even predict the weather 2-3 days ahead of time. Yet we're supposed to believe they can predict what will happen 2 or 3 or 5 years from now?


Hey Zip, I heard a real forecast like that. The year I left Windsor, the prediction for summer was going to either be hot and humid or cool and damp. Well duhhh, that's like going to Vegas to play roulette and betting on red AND black.

[EyeBrock]

DerbyX DerbyX:

PublicAnimalNo9 PublicAnimalNo9:

Well, I'll take Fucknuts a lot more seriously when he sells his 20 room mansion with indoor swimming pool that uses more energy in one month than most families use in a year.
And I'll take the rest of the AGW elitists a lot more seriously too, when they get rid of their private jets and limos.

I'll agree with that. Al Gore is a piss-poor example of what somebody concerned about carbon footprints. Ed Begley Jr is a much better example. He walks the walk.

May I suggest not taking your cue from either of them though and base it on the science and scientists that existed before the political hype?

Ed Begley is LOONY!

I saw this interview before. For him to do that on national TV is telling. He's nuts and isn't willing to listen to any counter argument.

No wonder the GW message is failing, no real proof, losers like Gore and Begley promoting the message and the renta-mob crowd who were anti-globalisation 5 years ago and now have decided GW is the new target of 'youth' protest.

Hardly a compelling crowd, hardly a credible message.

[DerbyX]

EyeBrock EyeBrock:

Ed Begley is LOONY!

I saw this interview before. For him to do that on national TV is telling. He's nuts and isn't willing to listen to any counter argument.

No wonder the GW message is failing, no real proof, losers like Gore and Begley promoting the message and the renta-mob crowd who were anti-globalisation 5 years ago and now have decided GW is the new target of 'youth' protest.

Hardly a compelling crowd, hardly a credible message.

Well first off a single interview does not a loony make. It takes at least a Fox TV spot. What I meant when I said he walked the walk is that he truly does try and live his life as green as he can and has been doing so for a long time.

The credible message as you say is still from the scientists.

For example I know you believe in a God and are Catholic (or Christian at least). Would you tell people to look at the message beyond the loony rantings of any TV evangelist? Do you think they have taken a message you believe is true and are distorting it into something hideous based on politicizing it?